What is Happening to "Douce France, Pays de Mon Enfance" ?

A New Era with the Far-right at the Gates of Power.

One of the most consequential results of the recent European parliamentary elections was President Macron's decision to dissolve the French National Assembly following his party's dramatic loss to the list of the far-right "Rassemblement National (RN)". The subsequent legislative elections will be held in two rounds of voting on June 30th and July. If the opinion polls are to be believed, the RN is on the cusp of power, within striking distance of achieving an absolute majority in the new chamber.

Jordan Bordella, Candidate of the RN for Prime Minister

(source; program of the RN, June 2024)

The young and dynamic Jordan Bordella (28 years old) is the RN's candidate for Prime Minister. The party's president, Marine Le Pen, is concentrating on the Presidential Elections due in the spring of 2027. President Macron's radical decision is deemed by some a risk too far as it offers the RN the chance to capture the reins of power, an unthinkable event just a few years ago at the beginning of his first presidential mandate, soundly defeating Marine Le Pen in the 2017 presidential elections with over 66% of the popular vote in the second round.

The surge of the Far Right is not a unique French phenomenon in Europe, as illustrated by the good performances of other parties in Europe, such as the AfD in Germany. However, given the history of the RN in France, this development has far-reaching consequences.

President Macron is banking on a better performance of his centre party, "Renaissance," as traditionally, European parliamentary elections are protest votes against the government in place with a relatively low turnout. However, he may have miscalculated, as the strength of the RN does not seem to be waning in view of the forthcoming legislative elections.

Populism, particularly the far-right variety, has a bad name in European political circles despite the ever-increasing number of voters deciding to support populist candidates, even if a closer analysis country by country presents a much more nuanced picture. Poland, for example, is moving away from a populist government, whereas, in other countries, the impact of the populist parties is mitigated by the coalition type of political systems in place, such as in the Netherlands.

The French case is unique because France is one of the largest countries in the European Union, and the French-German partnership as the "engine of Europe" has always been of prime importance. Macron is clearly a pro-European President. When he was first elected, he slowly walked towards the Louvre Pyramid to the sound of Beethoven's "Ode to Joy", the anthem of the European Union. He made a significant pro-European speech at the Paris Sorbonne University in 2017. He followed this up with a passionate declaration for strengthening the EU in a recent interview with the prestigious "Economist". The RN is distinctly of the opposite opinion. As recently as 2017, it advocated for a French exit from the EU and abandoning the Euro. Even if it has since dropped these radical measures from its program, it remains staunchly anti-European with an emphasis on a "Europe of Nations", which is code for undermining the power and influence of the EU in favour of the Member States' national governments.

Furthermore, the RN has historically strong ties with Russia, having received funding from a Russian bank with Putin's blessing in 2014 to the tune of 6 million EUR. The loan was finally repaid in 2023, conveniently before the 2024 European elections, but nonetheless, the damage was done. It may, therefore, not seem so surprising that the RN has been lukewarm in supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia and wanted until last week to withdraw from NATO's integrated military command. It has softened its position on both counts to gain voters in the forthcoming elections. However, such a swift change can be seen as political opportunism.

This demonstrates that the RN has been masterful in recreating a more nuanced image in the past years since Marine Le Pen took over from her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, in 2011. Slowly but surely, she has pushed for a major rebranding of the party (known in French as "dédiabolisation", i.e. "demonization" dropping the name of "Front National" to that more consensual and less threatening "Rassemblement National" RN. The FN was founded by Marine Le Pen's father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, as the "Front National" (FN) in 1972 and burst onto the political scene in the 1983 municipal elections, with Jean-Marie Le Pen winning 11.3% in the 12th arrondissement of Paris and following up with 11.3% in the 1984 - yet already - European elections. After much internal strife and internecine struggle, Jean-Marie Le Pen qualified for the second round of the 2002 presidential elections only to be soundly defeated by President Jacques Chirac, who won 82.21 %; Chirac famously refused to participate in the traditional debate between the two candidates qualified for the second round.

Jean-Marie Le Pen and his daughter Marine Le Pen

The roots of today's RN are very much in the French neo-fascist movement of the 1970s, the "Ordre Nouveau" (New Order). Jean-Marie Le Pen was notably convicted in 2009 and 2016 of denying crimes against humanity for qualifying the Nazi gas chambers as "a detail of history". Since then, under the presidency of Marine Le Pen, the party has moved away from any clear fascist rhetoric, focusing primarily on a solid anti-immigration position in a country where Muslim immigration from previous French colonies such as Algeria and Morocco remains at high levels.

The Rassemblement National has a neo-fascist heritage and strong roots in the French extreme-right nationalist move-ment post-World War two.

The RN is not the only party in Europe with genuine neo-fascist roots. The Brothers of Italy's origins are in the 1946 neo-fascist movement of the Italian Social Movement MSI, but the party's leader, Giorgia Meloni, became Prime Minister of Italy in October 2022. Despite following hard-line right-wing policies domestically, Meloni has adopted a more traditional conservative right-wing stance in Italy's foreign policy, much to the satisfaction of the international community.

The short-term future of French politics remains uncertain as the RN is not guaranteed to win an absolute majority on July 7th, and Bordella has declared that he would not be a candidate for the post of Prime Minister if the RN only has a relative majority. Furthermore, in reaction to the threat of the RN, the French left-wing parties have cobbled together a new "Front Populaire" type coalition to thwart the rapid ascension of the RN. They are credited with an expected good performance ahead of Macron's Renaissance party.

The French constitution confers many powers to the President, who will remain firmly in control of foreign policy whatever the results of the legislative elections and Macron may be tempted to take a leaf out of President François Mitterrand's book, who, for the first time under the Fifth Republic formally accepted a so-called "cohabitation" in March 1986 when his socialist party lost its majority in the National Assembly forcing his hand to select the leader of the Right, Jacques Chirac as Prime Minister. An even more apt comparison is the second cohabitation of 1997-2002 following the dissolution of the National Assembly by then-President Jacques Chirac, who unexpectedly lost the subsequent legislative elections, ushering in the Socialist Prime Minister as Prime Minister. In both cases, the experience of cohabitation did not work out in favour of the party controlling the government as they were voted out of power in the following elections, demonstrating that governing is always more complicated than being in opposition.

The RN is acutely aware of historical precedent and will think twice before accepting a formal cohabitation with Macron as Head of State if it does not have sufficient guarantees to lead a successful government. Macron may call the RN's bluff and accept such a cohabitation, hoping that the RN will fail in government, reducing the chances of Marine Le Pen in 2027 becoming President. Much will depend on the relative strength of the left-wing coalition, which is also perceived as extreme albeit to the left, given the presence of the President of "La France Insoumise (France Unbowed", Jean-Luc Mélanchon. This explains why Macron is hoping to thread the needle and keep control of the government by presenting his Renaissance Party as the only party that is not on the extreme fringes of the political spectrum; a claim made all the more plausible that the hitherto right-wing conservative party "Les Républicains" formally entered into a coalition agreement with the RN for the first time, destroying the concept of Republican sanitary cord against the far-right (and incidentally causing a spectacular split in the party). The burning question is the attitude of the various parties between the two rounds concerning constituencies where their original candidate has been eliminated. Will there be a united front against the RN, or will some candidates be convinced (or coerced) into calling to support the RN?

In any event, the RN may well be in a position to take over the reins of the government and show its true colours as a governing party. Will it be a neo-fascist wolf in sheep's clothing or merely a little red-hiding hood destined to be devoured by the other parties?

The last bastion may be President Macron himself, who may demonstrate that centrism is the only way to defeat the extremes of populism, from wherever it comes. Will Jupiter follow in the steps of the Sphinx, i.e., President Mitterrand, in taming the wolf in the hen coop?