Is This the Beginning of the End for Joe Biden?

A few hours after the Atlanta presidential debate between President Joe Biden and his challenger for the 2024 presidential election, former President Donald Trump, the reactions from the two sides are radically different.

Joe Biden had one main task : to reassure voters that despite his advanced age, he still has the energy, stamina and mental capacity not only to run forPresident again but to perform the tasks of the presidency during the projected second term. And by all accounts, he failed miserably. During the first part of the debate, even his most fervent supporters had to admit that he was faltering, often confused and barely audible. For all account and purposes, Joe Biden's performance was an unqualified disaster prompting Sky News in London to state :

"Excruciating Biden debate performance against Trump was among worst in presidential history - if not the worst".

Former President Trump and President Biden on stage at Atlanta, June 27th 2024

Republicans were barely able to head their "schadenfreude". The Floridian Congressman and arch-Maga supporter Matt Gaetz declared that "I think at the end of this, we're going to have to identify Joe Biden by his dental records".

Democrats are prone to hand-wringing and anxiety on a good day; a full blown panic has set in after Biden's performance on the debate stage and a clamour of voices from respected and not so respected political activists, specialists, pundits and Democrats from all sides saying out loud what was labourisouly kept as a secret up until now, namley that Biden has to be replaced on the Democrat ticket and leave way for a younger, more dynamic and ultimately a candidate who can actually beat Donald Trump.

Even Joe Biden's most fervent supporters are talking about a "gut punch" and are openly contemplating the worst case scenario of having to change candidate at such a late stage in the campaign.

The tragedy about all of this that the loud and overbearing discussion of Biden's performance and the Democrat's dire predicament has completely overshadowed the fact that Trump was not pitch perfect and as the evening progressed he became more and more extreme and flustered. His numerous and outrageous lies and unsubstantiated declarations went for the most part unchallenged and he was unable to offer a clear vision for the future. The only silver lining in the cloud for the Democrats is that Biden finished much stronger and regained his composure. But the damage has been done.

At this juncture, it is necessary to put emotions aside be it of glee or of dismay and emphasise a few key points.

1. There is no formal mechanism to replace Joe Biden at the top of the ticket.

2. The only option is for Joe Biden to withdraw voluntarily.

3. Despite the many calls for replacing the President no senior Democrat has - yet - expressed such an opinion.

4. Replacing Joe Biden would just be the first step in the process and the next immediate question would be who would replace him? The obvious choice of Vice-President Kamala Harris does not seem to be unanimously supported as irrespective of her intrinsic qualities, many believe that the US is not ready to elect a black woman president. Other names such as California Governor Gavin Newsom or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer are being touted.

5. If Biden were to step down, the Democrats would be desperate to make sure that his replacement or replacements on the ticket were unanimously accepted and that their would be no power struggle that would irrevocably condemn any remaining chances of victory.

6. Emotions are never good counsel and Democrats should not rush to a hasty decision.

7. The democrats would be wise to take their time - though not too much time - and evaluate the reaction of the electorate through future opinion polls and focus groups.

8. Joe Biden has been constantly underestimated and he is never so strong as in the face of adversity.

Ultimately the risk of having Donald Trump as President is so great, that failure is not an option. Trump demonstrated even yesterday that he is unfit to be President. He is a text-book fascist and feeds on hatred, division and bigotry. But the only message that came out of the debate yesterday was Biden's disastrous performance and that he cannot beat Donald Trump. The tragedy is that Biden has truly been an excellent president and a man of honour and impeccable character.

The Democrats need to own the moment. The stakes are too high for failure. Democracy must be protected and preserved at all costs.

A careful evaluation has to be made by the Democrats in a rational, calm and balanced manner.

At the end of the day, the solution may come from Joe Biden himself. As a man steeped in history and aware of the importance of saving America from fascism he may himself come to the conclusion that in the interest of the Nation and the country he is no longer the person able to defeat Donald Trump and that he needs to step down.

We must continue to trust Joe Biden and have faith in his ability to make the right decision. He can surprise us all once again by stepping down in a yet to be defined manner. His legacy may be to save American democracy not by personally defeating Donald Trump but by ensuring that he never becomes President again by guaranteeing the conditions of success for a Democrat being elected on November 5th. Or alternatively he may use last night's disaster to frame the campaign in a different manner by addressing his age straight on and continue fighting the battle of his life with renewed energy and turn the spotlight on the absolute criminal crassness of Donald Trump that was likewise apparent for all to see on stage in Atlanta.

Last but not least the Democrats as a party need to rally around their candidate and keep their trust in Biden. He alone knows if he is really up for the task or not and he will assuredly confer with his family and closest aides. If he determines that he is up for the task, then the Democrats shouldn't throw the older man out with the Presidential bath water. After all his opponent is the real whining baby here, albeit with considerable flaws of character that to put it in Trump's typical terminology, "the such you have never seen before".