Prime Minister by Default?

The Labour landslide has been confirmed. With only two more seats to be called, Labour has an absolute majority of 170 after winning 412 seats - as per the exit poll, just under Tony Blair's majority of 179 in 1997. However, the projections of the exit poll were not entirely accurate. The Conservatives are on 120 and the centrist Liberal Democrats on a record 71. The SNP in Scotland has collapsed and registers only 8 seats compared to the 48 they had in the previous parliament. The Reform Party was initially expected, based on the exit poll, to reach double-digit seat numbers but despite achieving a high percentage of votes, given the "first past the post" system in Britain, they only have 4 seats, with Nigel Farage finally winning a seat in parliament after seven previous unsuccessful attempts. Likewise, the left-wing Green Party won 4 seats.

As shown above, the share of the vote does not uniformly reflect in the number of seats due to the aforementioned British electoral system. The Reform Party came third in terms of vote share at 14.3% in front of the Liberal Democrats, but won only 4 seats compared to the LibDems 71. It is clear that the demise of the Conservatives reflects the deep feeling of need for change and desire to punish the Tories after a chaotic 14-year rule which saw no less than five successive Tory prime ministers, the Brexit debacle and numerous scandals related to the way that Boris Johnson ignored the Covid rules that his government had imposed and lied about it thereafter.

Contrary to the 1997 Labour landslide, the feeling in the country is morose and on the back of the price of living crisis, post-Brexit UK is in a bad state and much needs to be done to repair the damage done in recent years.

Labour's victory is more a repudiation of the past 14 years than a hearty endorsement of Labour's program. And herein lies the rub. Sir Keir Starmer is in essence a Prime Minister by default in a what some pundits are calling a "loveless" or "revenge" election.

Fundamental problems need to be addressed, not least how to "make Brexit work" to use Starmer's expression. He will feel the anti-European breath of Nigel Farage breathing down his neck on the strength not of his small number of MPs, but rather based on the impressive numbers of people who voted for the Reform Party. What remains of the Conservative Party will try to remain relevant by choosing a new leader who promises a battle between the more centrist minded wing of the party and the far-right wing of the party. Whichever side will win, will decide the future orientation of the party and will have a large influence on how things play out in the formal Opposition to Labour, who in reality have such a large majority that they can govern as they please.

In Wales, the Conservatives have been wiped out and in Scotland, it is the Labour Party that has come out on top, thrashing the SNP who have been reduced to a paltry 9 seats in the new parliament down from 48. Although the SNP remains in power in devolved Scotland and the next election in Holyrood is not before May 2026, the razor-thin SNP majority in the Scottish Parliament coupled with their dreadful performance in the General Election will the next two years very difficult for the SNP. Most importantly any chances of being able to organise a new referendum for Scottish Independence are now virtually impossible as Westminster has no incentive to grant permission to do so (the Scottish Labour Party is a Unionist Party) and even if they were by some miracle be able to organise such a referendum, support for independence in Scotland is on the wane in parallel to the SNP's fortunes. Finally, in Northern Ireland, Sinn Féin has the largest contingent of MPs and the question of a potential Irish referendum will become more pressing in the near future.

In his first speech as Prime Minister, Starmer promised a decade of national renewal and putting "country first, party second".

The Labour Party under the leadership of Starmer have their work cut out for them and the pressure to deliver will be immense. The economic fundamentals will not allow for Labour to spend their way out of trouble, and their promises in this respect have been very conservative (both with a big and a small "c"). Any leeway they will have depends on getting the economy back on to the track of stronger growth, but exactly how they are going to do that is not clear, in particular if they are approaching the race with one hand tied behind their backs by refusing to entertain any significant or meaningful softening of Brexit.

In his first speech as Prime Minister, Starmer promised a decade of national renewal and putting "country first, party second". can not fall back on the charisma of previous Labour prime ministers and he will have to decide very quickly which type of prime minister he wants to be. A cautious, grey bank manager type of technocratic prime minister or a more ambitious, daring reformer? He has the political space and security to chose his own path and that is the best news for him. He needs to act swiftly to benefit from the goodwill his large majority has given him before cracks start to appear within his party, as they invariably will as time passes by and potentially become a much loved prime minister after yesterday's loveless election.