The Difficult Revival of Polish Democracy

Be Careful What You Wish For.

Donald Tusk won the October 2023 parliamentary elections at the head of his Civic Coalition, confounding the polls and ushering in a period of change after eight years of far-right government dominated by the Law and Justice Party (PiS). Young people took to the streets of Warsaw to celebrate what they considered to be a vote in favour of Europe and democracy.

Other liberal pro-democracy leaders around the world welcomed the return of Donald Tusk to frontline Polish politics as he had earned an excellent reputation as President of the European Council during the difficult negotiations with the UK during the successful Brexit referendum.

The so-called "March of a Million Hearts" a few weeks before the election demonstrated the fervour and excitement generated by the then opposition parties under the banner of a three-party coalition where each party retained its own identity and the symbol of the heart in Polish colours cemented the pro-democracy vision of the Civic Coalition regaining the flag as a patriotic symbol that had hitherto been hijacked by the ruling far-right government.

Donald Tusk during the "March of a Million Hearts" on October 1st, 2023.

On December 13th, Donald Tusk was selected as Prime Minister by the Sejm (the Polish Parliament) and received his appointment and that of his new cabinet from the President of the Polish Republic, Andrzej Duda. In his first speech as Prime Minister, Tusk made an emotional and forceful presentation of his government's program centred around "100 proposals of the Civic Coalition".

"I believe that 15 October will go down in history as a day of peaceful rebellion, a rebellion for freedom and democracy, and not the first of its kind. It is somewhat like 31 August 1989 or 4 June, when we regained our independence, our freedom, following Solidarity’s victory".

Unusually for a modern politician Tusk also referred to the notion of "love" in politics, stating that he cannot "fathom politics without love". He called for unity and said that "unity is strength" is "no longer a slogan but the first political commandment". He asked to put the "brutal election campaign" behind us and to work together for the benefit of the nation.

Only a few days later, just before Christmas, the atmosphere at the Polish broadcasting company's headquarters, TVP, was very different. Members of the former ruling party, PiS, including its leader Jarosław Kaczyński, organised a sit-in following the government's dismissal of the management of TVP and Polskie Radio, another public broadcaster, as well as of the Polish Press Agency (PAP).

Cleaning up the Augean stables of Polish democracy with an "iron broom" took centre stage, and the takeover of public media left the country in no doubt of the new government's intention to act quickly and decisively against the backsliding of democracy and the erosion of the rule of law — so much so for love and unity.

The "October 15th Coalition" has enjoyed undeniable success, notably with the release of the much-needed 57 billion euros previously withheld by the EU from the post-COVID recovery and resilience fund. Efforts have been made to bring the judicial system back in line with EU law and politically motivated investigations against judges initiated by the previous government have been terminated.

However, passing the coalition's promised reforms is proving to be very difficult. Key institutions, notably the Constitutional Court, have been politicised after eight years of PiS control and are resisting change. Most importantly, Donald Tusk and his coalition partners must contend with President Duda, a stalwart right-wing figure and PiS loyalist whose term ends in August 2025. Duda has significant power to veto any legislative reforms. The government is reduced to forcing change by parliamentary declarations and ministerial orders, thereby bypassing formal legislative measures.

Political lawfare reached new heights recently when the Constitutional Court declared that a bill passed in parliament was unconstitutional as two opposition politicians had been excluded from parliament following criminal convictions. The two politicians in question were adamant that their exclusion was illegitimate, as precisely President Duda had pardoned them. The ruling of the Constitutional Court will have far-reaching consequences as all other bills passed in parliament will likewise potentially also be declared illegitimate. The President has sent the government's 2024 to the Court for assessment as he has "doubts" as to whether it was adopted properly. The government is threatening to ignore the Constitutional Court's ruling (not for the first time) as, in their opinion, the Court "is acting on political orders".

In addition to the lack of power to formally implement ambitious reforms, Tusk has to contend with his coalition partners from the left, "Lewica," and the centre party," Third Way," who have different views, notably on the important issue of the liberalisation of abortion, which was an important part of the coalition's electoral platform. The various parties do not see eye to eye on just how far the existing stringent law should be changed.

Take into account the local elections in April and the European parliamentary elections in June, and it is easy to understand that the government has been in perpetual election mode. Despite Law and Justice (PiS) remaining the strongest party in the local elections, the Civic Coalition managed to improve their position by achieving majorities in 11 of the 18 regional assemblies as well as retaining and capturing new mayoralties, notably in Warsaw and other major cities. The European elections were an even more marked success for the Civic Coalition where for the first time it beat Law and Justice (PiS) in an election for the past ten years, albeit with less than one percent of the vote. The recent electoral performance of the Civic Coalition has shown that the new government still has the support of the voters and is benefiting from the momentum of the October 15th 2023 parliamentary elections. However, the opposition is close behind and is snapping at their heels, using their time in opposition to heal their internal wounds and muster their forces for future battles.

The next battle is just around the corner, with the important Presidential elections that are due to be held on May 18th 2025 (the elections have to be held between 75 days and 100 days before the term's end). President Duda is not eligible for re-election.

The Presidential Palace in Warsaw

The battle for the presidency will focus most the political debate over the next months with the recently re-elected Mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski and the recent PiS Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki emerging as favourites for their respective camps with current the Speaker and the leader of The Third Way, Szymon Hołownia also a serious contender. However, it is important to stress that the respective parties have not yet formally named their candidates and much can change as aggressive political infighting and maneuvers are to be expected. The stakes could not be higher as the future of the fight for liberal democracy in Poland requires a common executive and legislative control by the Civic Coalition.

It has been six months since Donal Tusk was appointed Prime Minister. If a week i famously a long time in politics, half a year is an eternity. The war in neighbouring Ukraine is omnipresent in the minds of the political class and the uncertainty of the US elections is also of great concern.

Poland is a prime example of a country in transition that can resist democratic backsliding and promote the core values of democracy. The rise of populist extreme far-right parties in Europe is not unavoidable although Poland also has its won issues ot contend in this respect as an ever more far-right party  than PiS

Confederation (Konfederacja) had a good run at the recent European elections with 12.1% of the votes (up from 7.5% in 2019) polling ahead of the Civic Coalition's partners The Left (Lewica) and The Third Way (Trzecia Droga) 6.9 % and 6.3 % respectively.

Winning elections is one matter, governing is an entirely different matter. The Civic Coalition is facing constraints that are institutional in nature given the important role of the presidency, currently in the hands of a political opponent. France may soon follow suit with a cohabitation of its own if the far-right National Rally Party wins the forthcoming legislative elections.

The challenge faced by the current government is to resist the normal erosion and attrition of governing whilst keeping the flame alive to win the battle for the presidency, thus allowing Poland to become a Reaganesque "bright city on the hill" and a genuine beacon for democracy in Europe and afar. All eyes will remain on Poland and its quest for regaining its deserved place in the pantheon of democratic nations; so that the bold predictions of Prime Minister Tusk's exposé upon his appointment on December 13th past do not remain in vain.