The UK General Election

A Distinct "Fin de siècle" Feeling.

July the fourth is famously "Independence Day" in the US and represents the celebration of the Declaration of Independence of 1776. The current British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak will hope that the British people will also demonstrate their independence by re-electing his conservative Tory party in the UK parliamentary elections that he has called for on the forthcoming July 4th despite the negative polls that see him trailing by double digits to the Labour party. Given the state of the campaign so far, his gamble for calling an election on such a memorable date seems to have backfired.

A Tory victory is about as probable as Christmas in the middle of July, although miracles do happen, but on Elm Street, not in London or the Shires of bucolic England. Fourteen years of conservative rule have profoundly changed the UK, and the Tory record does not resonate with the British electorate. Five prime ministers since the Brexit referendum of 2016 (Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss and Sunak) and even more astoundingly three in a period of just two months in the autumn of 2002 does not reflect well on the British political establishment.

When the tenure of a British Prime Minister is compared to the shelf-life of a lettuce, and the lettuce wins, then you know you are in hot water.

The previous general election of 2019 was dubbed "the Brexit Election" and allowed Boris Johnson to stay in power with what was coined as a "landslide" majority of 80 seats. Johnson had campaigned on "getting Brexit done", a simple but powerful slogan that reached its audience. Johnson talked about "an oven-ready Brexit" and claimed that the future of the UK outside of the UK, based on his extreme view of Brexit, would be the best invention since sliced bread or, in this case, an oven-baked delicacy. Maybe that is why he was caught hiding in a fridge to avoid journalists as he was fastidiously putting all the ingredients together.

The 2024 election is the "Nigel Farage Election," as the far-right politician's influence is overbearing, not only in terms of his typical obnoxious and hate-bating presence in the British media but, more importantly, in regards to his favourite theme, blaming all of the country's woes on immigration and in particular illegal immigration illustrated by the ever-increasing number of small boats crossing the English Channel with desperate refugees at the risk of their own lives. The current government had promised to "stop the boats", notably by shipping off unwanted immigrants to the African country of Rwanda, world-famous for its exemplary democracy and respect for human rights (the 1992 genocide be damned....).

"As if by magic, the 2019's most urgent electoral theme has disappeared and even uttering the word "Brexit" is a risk too far, understandably for the Conservatives but less so for the Labour Party."

The only people who pretend that Brexit was a success these days are ex-Prime Minister Boris Johnson and far-right acolytes such as the aptly named Jacob Rees-Mogg, who looks as if he was transported suit and tie directly from the nineteenth century where his Little England proclivities would be better understood and accepted. The British people have made up their minds, and most people regret Brexit, not only because of the long queues for British holidaymakers travelling abroad. In October 2021, the UK government's Office of Budget Responsibility calculated that Brexit would cost 4% of GDP per annum over the long term. Brexit has been an unqualified own-goal and disaster for the UK.

You would have thought that the Opposition would jump on this abysmal failure and seek to reverse the most dire consequences of such a failed policy. But lo and behold, the Leader of the Labour Party has declared that Brexit is no longer on the agenda other than "making Brexit better." Nothing works better than giving aspirin to a terminal cancer patient. Sir Keir Starmer has ruled out any major concessions on Brexit, and his so-called red lines are tying him up in knots in a political straight-jacket that even Houdini would find difficult to get out of. Even joining the EU Customs Union is not an option, as per Labour's newfound European dogma, so the only options left are cosmetic at best and unrealistic at worst.

Sir Keir Starmer, Leader of the Labour Party

The only explanation for this dereliction of duty is that Labour is so desperate to get back into power that it doesn't want to take any risks. God forbid if it were to antagonise the 52% of "leavers" who voted for Brexit in 2016.

Starmer is afraid of his own shadow and has pushed the concept of playing safe to new extremes at the risk of appearing feckless and a slave to political expediency.

The prospects of the Tories staying in power are so limited that they verge on delusion, and Labour's political prospects will never be so auspicious as they are today. All the more reason to be bold and to address the Brexit Loch Ness Monster in the halls of Westminster. Starmer should take a leaf out of Tony Blair's and Gordon Brown's book and propose far reaching reforms such as ensuring the independence of the Bank of England when New Labour came to power in 1997.

In respect to the people of Scotland and Northern Ireland who voted in majority against Brexit and the large number of "remainers" a more progressive European policy is required. To those who say that trying to reverse the damage of Brexit would be a denial of democracy as it would be going against the 52% of citizens who wanted to split from the EU, it is necessary to remember that democracy and the will of the people are not immutable and frozen in time. The duty of a politician is to lead by conviction and to put country before party.

The 2024 Labour manifesto states that "we will honour Brexit and be confident of status outside of EU". Being confident of being outside of the EU is akin to enjoy living in the garage next to the main house which has been burnt down to the ground instead of trying to rebuild. Who needs running water and electricity when a downgraded garage lifestyle focuses the mind on a more frugal way of living ?

The Labour Party owes it to the British people in particular the younger generations who have been denied access to the European continent to study, work and travel freely and ultimately to history. To lead not in fear but to reestablish the essence of good governing, namely build conviction on a foundation of knowledge, passion where the emotional aspect of conviction is essential to inspire people, to act with purpose where the reasons, rationale and benefits of the outcome are clearly communicated and last but not least to demonstrate belief in the proposed vision , as without genuine belief divorced from any short term political expediency the policy is doomed to fail.

Starmer would do well to listen to the European aspirations of the British people and act decisively to undo the mistakes of the past. Repeating the same errors and expecting different results is not a sign of intelligence but a sign of madness; a madness with no method; only a bottomless abyss of everlasting decay, degradation and despair.

Turning a blind eye to one of the most fundamental important geopolitical and economic issues that will determine the future well-being of the UK will only ensure that the current "fin de siècle" vibes herald a more permanent "end of the world" situation leaving the United Kingdom an ever poorer Nation desperately trying to remain afloat off the coast of a stronger and more European continent.