What Happens Now

President Macron in a bind of his own making.

President Macron's audacious gamble to dissolve the French National Assembly and call for fresh parliamentary elections has, at the very least, been successful in one important aspect: the turnout is estimated at 67.5%, an exceptionally high level practically never seen never seen since 1981 for a similar type of election.

The main question before the first round was the relative strength of each of the three main parties, respectively coalitions, namely "Le Nouveau Front Populaire " (left-wing; Ensemble (Centre) and the "Rassemblement National -" (extreme-right, National Rally - NR). The opinion polls predicted a large victory for the NR and the results of the first round of voting confirmed their historical performance leading all other parties with an estimated 33% of the votes, which would translate into anywhere between 255 to 295 seats in the new national assembly. The absolute majority is set at 289 as the chamber counts a total of 577 seats.

A few comments at this stage are necessary :

1. The exceptionally high level of turn out demonstrates that the French electorate feels very concerned by these elections and wishes their voice to be heard. The high turn out gives all the more weight to the results.

2. The score of the NR includes their new allies and affiliated party lists. The President of the conservative party, "Les Républicains", Mr Eric Ciotti made the extraordinary move of signing a formal agreement with Marine Le Pen and this move initiated a split in his party which officially took measures to destitute him as leader. The wing of the party that refused this alliance presented their own candidates and received just under 10% of the vote.

3. The new alliance of the left-wing parties (named "Le nouveau front populaire or "New National Front" in reference to the original national front of 1936) arrived in second place with 28.5%, i.e. a projected range of seats from 120 to 140. This alliance of the communist party, the France Unbowed party, the socialists and the green party known in France as the ecologists can consider their results as acceptable, albeit slightly lower than what they could reasonably have expected.

4. The French parliamentary election takes place over two rounds. In the unlikely event that a candidate has received more than 50% of the votes in any given constituency, that candidate wins the seat outright and there is no second round election for that seat. Any candidate that received more than 12.5% of the votes in his or her constituency is qualified for the second round. The winner of the second round for any given constituency is the candidate that received a simple majority of the votes. Traditionally, most second round elections are between two candidate's that reflected the bi-polar left/right split in the French political spectrum. THis year, however, is a different situation all together as there will be a large number of second round elections where three candidates will be present. One from the New National Front, one from the Centre (Ensemble or "Together" )and one from the NR. This is what is known as a "triangular" election.

5. Triangular elections set the stage for a considerable amount of horse trading and last minute agreements between parties so that the least well positioned candidate withdraws and pledges to support one or other of the two best placed candidates. The latest numbers estimate that there will be a record number of 285 to 315 of such triangular elections. To put this into perspective at the last legislative elections there were only 8 in 2022 and one in 2017. This is due to the high turn out and the particular situation with three strong parties above 20%.

A record number of triangular second round elections will take place on July 7th

The intense horse trading that will take place at the beginning of next week will determine the alliances and agreements both at the national level and at the local level that will determine the outcome of the second round.

The fundamental unknown factor is how willing are the traditional parties in France willing to work together to prevent the extreme-right from achieving an absolute majority next week. Are they prepared to respectively withdraw their candidate in favour of the better placed candidate liable to be able to beat the NR candidate thus building a "Republican Wall" or Republican Front against the extreme-right ? This will be no easy task as it requires politicians from hitherto bitterly opposed parties to work together to pursue what should be the more important task of preventing a far-right party with strong fascist roots from governing the country for the next three years.

Whilst it is true that President Macron will remain head of state and in the particular French system of government will retain considerable authority and power, in particular in the area of foreign policy and matters that pertain to the overall interest and national security of France. As such, no major changes are expected in relation to the French position on Ukraine for example although any requested military credits will have to be approved by the new national assembly.

However, the historical significance of the victory of the National Rally cannot be ignored. It is truly of historical proportions and represents a seismic change in French politics that also is most probably a fatal blow for the centre political philosophy advocated by President Macron. This will also undoubtedly have an impact on other countries as well. The last time a sovereign nationalist extreme-right party won parliamentary elections was in 1815 no less. The roots of the NR do not extend so far back in history but are unfortunately based on post second world war neo-fascist ideals of a particular virulent nature. Despite the rebranding that Marine Le Pen has been able to operate since becoming leader of the then -Front National FN in 2011, there remains a significant underbelly of racist, and anti-semite ideal simmering under the surface. These feelings of hated and division are wrapped up in the virginal cloak of protecting the national identity but the targets of this new brand of extremism are the immigrants most of whom come form Northern Africa where once France rued as a colonial power in countries such as Algeria, Morocco and other parts of the Maghreb.

One of my previous posts explains in more detail the resurgence of the National Rally and what it means for France:

Douce France Pays de mon Enfance

The NR is keen of winning an absolute majority and Marine Le Pen has called for the French electorate to confirm their initial choices and vote her party into power. If the NR is successful, Jordan Bardella, Marine Le Pen's protégé will become Prime Minister and President Macron will be forced into a formal "cohabitation" with a political party that he despises. Mr Bardella is known as Marine Le Pen's "lion cub" as he is entirely devoted to her as is a young 29 years old.

One can imagine that any cohabitation with the NR will not be a classical cohabitation between two politicians as the previous three cohabitations with a President form one party and a prime minister from another opposing party. Any future cohabitation will be between the youngest ever president of the fifth Republic and the youngest ever prime minister. Moreover the cohabitation will be in reality a "méanage à trois" as Marine Le Pen, the Lioness in chief will clearly dictate to her protégé what to do, when to roar and when to bite. Although in French literature and cinema, the French ménage à trois is much appreciated, in politics it will be a different matter all together.

President Macron, aka "Jupiter" will attempt to follow in President Mitterand's (aka the Sphinx) footsteps and neutralise the RN by forcing them to actually govern and demonstrate potentially their incompetence. One must not forget that the forthcoming events are merely a dress rehearsal for the 2027 presidential elections that Marine Le Pen is obsessively preparing for. Perhaps Jupiter will tame the Lioness in chief and show that her roar is much louder than her bite, but only a fool would take this for granted.