A Summer of all Dangers

As three large nations face seismic change : is this the end of an era?

History likes to play jokes on us. and sometimes timing is everything. Tomorrow is independence day in the United States with a President Joe Biden who is hanging by the skin of his teeth at the top of the Democrat ticket for the November presidential election. Whilst the Americans will be enjoying hot dogs and fireworks, the British Prime Minister will be most probably be put in the dog house by the British electorate along with his fellow conservatives and it will be firework for Keir Starmer and the Labour Party. Last but not least, this coming Sunday President Macron will realise that he was barking up the wrong tree when he impetuously dissolved the National Assembly and with the loss of his majority he will have been hoisted by his own petard.

Three consequential nations on the world stage, confronted with seismic changes and an uncertain future.

Of the three, the UK elections attracts the least attention internationally. Not only because Keir Starmer has the charisma of a local bank manager, but probably also because the demise of the Conservatives has been on the cards for quite some time now. In particular once then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson took a joke too far and decided that partying in Downing Street was the right thing to do, whilst the Queen was all alone on one side of St.George's Chapel in Windsor Castle for the funeral of her beloved husband Prince Philip, scrupulously following the afore-mentioned Covid rules, Apparently what is fit for Boris Johnson is not fit for a queen. Johnson then added insult to injury by lying about it all (and trying to beat Donald Trump at the "politician-who-lies-the-most-game).

Once Johnson got the ball moving downhill, Liz Truss took over as Prime Minister only to see the dream of her political life lasting less than the shelf life of a lettuce but she still had time to crash the British economy before she was pushed out unceremoniously by the men in the grey suits (i.e her fellow parliamentary colleagues).

She was replaced by Rishi Sunak (the second Prime Minister in a row to be selected by the ever dwindling limited membership of the Conservative Party in the UK) who did his best to prove that he was the living example of Peter's Principle whereby he was promoted to a position far above his competence and skill levels. He wasn't able to stop the continuous downfall of the Conservative Party, just as he wasn't able "to stop the boats" from coming over from France with desperate immigrants. He banked his premiership on the ingenious "ship off the afore mentioned immigrants to Rwanda scheme" an example of a man of the people such as Sunak trying to convince the rest of the country that Rwanda is the epitome of Human Rights and always has been, damm the 1992 genocide. By the way wouldn't it be better by the same token for the UK to withdraw from the pesky European Convention on Human Rights ?

He kicked of what has proved to be a calamitous six week election campaign by standing in an absolute downpour outside of Downing Street with no umbrella or protection as if rain was a very rare commodity in London, very quickly turning into a forlorn wet dog before rushing back into Downing Street to presumably thank his attentive team from sending him out in such weather. Decidedly he must feel at home enjoying the best Britain has to offer in terms of summer weather as he left early the D-Day commemoration of June 6th to give a TV interview. After all there were practically no more living survivors of D-Day so maybe nobody would notice and/or mind ?

You have to admit, looking from abroad, the British really do have a unique and refreshing sense of humour. Not only do they cut off their nose to spite their face by voting for Brexit (thank you Mr Johnson) but they then go on to see if they can seize defeat from the jaws of victory by committing their future to a clown of a Prime Minister soon to be followed by his band of merry minstrels.

A band of merry minstrels.

If you are interested in learning more about recent events in the United Kingdom, please take a look at the following articles :

How They Broke Britain

The UK General Election

Across the Pond, in Washington D.C:, President Joe Biden is not faring any better. After his disastrous performance at the first presidential debate in Atlanta last week, Calamity Joe scared the living daylights out of all his supporters and people who reluctantly were leaning to vote for him. Whilst he managed to show a much better side of himself the next day at a campaign rally, the question of his advanced age and seemingly reduced cognitive skills has become not only an issue for the Democrats but a genuine matter of State.

Should I stay or should I go?

Less than a week after the debate debacle, it increasingly looks as if Biden is losing the plot and will be forced to withdraw sooner rather than later. It is not so much the fact that the press has turned against him. It is not the first time and he has proved them wrong before. However, the matter this time round is substantially more important as the stakes are so high for the future of democracy in the US. I have advocated to give Biden time to assess his position and see if he can indeed turn things around in his favour. I have also advocated quite clearly not to throw him out with the bathwater. But ultimately as I have always said, we must trust Joe Biden and have faith in him being able to take the right decision.

We need to talk about Joe Biden

Is this the beginning of the end for Joe Biden

The latest reports indicate that Biden himself is clear eyed and understands that his candidacy is threatened. He has to prove to the country, to his close advisers and family but also to himself that he is still up to the task. The next few days will be critical with a meeting scheduled with the Democratic governors and a major interview with George Stephanopoulos from ABC news on Friday. Given the increasing pressure from Democrats in Congress and at the higher levels of the Party, he simply has to outperform all expectations this week if he wants to have a chance to hold on to his top place on the Democrat ticket. The mere fact that th eword is getting out that Biden is not oblivious to the gravity of the situation and that his comments were then vehemently denied by his campaign indicate that we are slowly and maybe not so slowly, but surely moving into the direction of a withdrawal of his candidacy. If the polls indicate a shift away from Biden in the coming days, irrespective of his performance on TV or lack thereof, his situation will become undefendable.

I continue to believe that Joe Biden is able to put the country before his personal interests and if he comes to the conclusion that his position is indeed no longer tenable, then he will withdraw in a manner that befits his character. It would make a lot of sense for him to withdraw in favour explicitly of his Vice-President, Kamala Harris who was a part of his administration and who can legitimately claim to take credit for all the accomplishments of the past three and a half years. If Biden is able to withdraw in favour of Kamala Harris and keep the Party united behind her it would be an act of tremendous courage, fortitude and skill.

It remains to be seen if the Party and the other hopefuls are prepared to be as disciplined as this scenario suggests. The chance of becoming President is an opportunity that few people would give up on without a fight. The risk of a lack of discipline is a raucous open Convention that will split the Party and leave it in tatters to fight the General Election.

President Macron : Et Maintenant? (And now?)

President Macron is faced with a dilemma of his own making. Contrary to President Biden, even in the worst case scenario he will not be forced out of office and will remain Head of State until the next presidential election in 2027.

If a week is a long time in politics, three years is an eternity. The question is if it will be an eternity in hell for Macron or only in three years in purgatory. Much will depend on whether the National Rally, a Party that represents everything that Macron despises and has fought against all his political life, will manage to cobble together a stable government after the second round of parliamentary elections this coming Sunday. Insofar that all of the other political parties have decided to stay untied against the National Rally in line with the principle of building a Republican Front against the far-right National Rally should deprive the NR from achieving the holy grail of an absolute majority. But in France, like in all other democracies, it is the people who have the last word and despite the instructions of the various political leaders, it is not guaranteed that the French electorate will decide nonetheless to give the NR their chance.

In any event, the surge of the NR in recent years is a major political phenomenon for France that goes far beyond the similar progress of other populist parties in Europe. The history of the National Rally as a Party, its roots in neo-fascism, the declared anti-semitism of Marine Le Pen's father and the radical anti-immigration policies advocated by the NR are such that have little if any comparison to other countries in Europe. The Conservatives in the UK have moved to the right of the political spectrum in the recent past. However, the Reform Party in the UK is even further right and much more explicitly anti-immigration and racist. The leader of the Reform Party, Nigel Farage of Brexit fame, uncharacteristically let the mask slip during the recent UK general election campaign by declaring his support of Russia and Putin over Ukraine which even for far right enthusiasts in Britain was a stepp too far. Marine Le Pen has had more practice toning down the program of the National Rally and has managed to avoid any similar "slips of the tongue" similar to the one that Nigel Farage has committed in Britain and that her father was fond of.

But despite her best efforts of window dressing, the NR remains a Reform Party type of animal, fundamentally racist and with a strong undercurrent of anti-semitism that up until very recently with close financial links to Putin's Russia. Not so long ago, during the 2017 presidential campaign, Marine Le Pen was suggesting that France withdraw from the European Union and abandon the Euro. Even today, some of the policies of the NR are deemed to be extreme and potentially unconstitutional. In particular the notion of giving "national preference" to all French citizens of "pure souche", i.e "purebred". Even French citizens who have dual nationality would not be considered genuine French citizens and they would not be allowed to work in certain governmental positions as their allegiance to France would be tainted. There is a strong suspicion that the NR under Marine Le Pen is simply a wolf in sheep's clothing and that once in power, they will show their true colours.

President Macron is in the unfortunate position of being term-limited and whatever happens he will not be able to seek re-election in 2027. Marine Le Pen, however, eats, prays and loves the 2027 election and the possibility of having her protégé, Jordan Bordella, head the government as Prime Minister is not her end goal but only the next stepping stone to achieve her real goal of the presidency. This is the context of the political situation in France today and each Party will have this in mind.

The NR has already softened its more extreme policies - whilst not giving up on the sacred principle of "national identity". The Party portrays itself as representing the little folk, the forgotten ones who have been left aside by past governments and similar to other countries, the NR is promising to come to their aide with "common sense solutions". This remains a very potent message, even if is based on a very simplistic world view. If the NR is able to force a cohabitation with President Macron and they will in effect run the government, the French President will remain as Head of State and as such continue to have considerable power and authority conferred to him by the Constitution, primarily in the area of foreign policy but not only. In such a scenario Macron will most probably try to give enough rope to the NR so that they will hang themselves and therefore be a much reduced force when it comes to the 2027 presidential elections. HIs task will nonetheless be made all the more difficult as he will potentially in effect become more and more of a lame duck president the closer he gets to 2027. Added to this, the other politicians from all sides will be jockeying for influence and power in view of the 2027 elections.

I believe that President Macron's preferred option is to prevent at all cost the NR from getting even a small taste of power and that he will name as Prime Minister a so-called Republican from one of the other parties. He sees it as almost a god-given mission to protect France from the evils of the NR so he would only go down the road of accepting a cohabitation with the NR if he has no other option. It remains to be seen if the French people will give his the luxury of remaining master of his own destiny and of that of France.

What is happening to Douce France, pays de mon enfance?