Beware of False Equivalences
- Liam Devine
- Jul 9, 2024
- 6 min read
Updated: Jul 16, 2024
Recent events in France, the UK and the US require careful consideration before comparing apples with oranges.
In the UK, the left-wing Labour Party won a landslide victory in the general election, whilst in France, the even more left-wing New Popular Front won the most seats in the French parliamentary elections. Many commentators are pointing to these two events to explain that, lo and behold, the left is back on the front foot in Europe and that it is a good omen for the US presidential elections in November.
Whereas in the UK, the barbarians were already in the city and were creating havoc, in France the neo-fascist National Rally was only at the gates.
As described in great detail in one of my other posts, Marine Le Pen, the leader of the renamed National Rally, is the leader of a political party and ideology inherited from her father.
Contrary to other far-right political parties in Europe, such as for example, the Law and Justice Party in Poland, the National Rally has clear neo-fascist roots . Marine Le Pen has spent the best part of 13 years rebranding the party and softening its image, denying its links to fascism and to any reference to Maréchal Pétain's collaboration government in 1940.
She has only been partially successful in this respect. A case in point is the fact that during the recent election campaign, some of the NR candidates openly confessed their extreme racist, openly antisemite and bigoted opinions, with notably a photograph of one candidate reappearing on twitter / X wearing a second world war Luftwaffe cap.
Between the two voting rounds, political violence broke out; militants from the New Popular Front who were putting up political posters were violently aggressed by far-right thugs and left-wing candidates were often verbally aggressed on the campaign trail.
The so-called civil society, actors, singers and famous cultural figures also clearly and loudly expressed their fear and concerns about letting the NR access power. The high turnout last Sunday shows the importance of this election.
Contrary to a country such as the US, politicians, journalists and everyday people are not afraid to call a spade a spade and to openly name the National Rally for what they are, i.e. a fascist party. The "F-word" is not taboo, and the euphemism of "totalitarian" or "authoritarian" is not used so much. One must understand that the experience of fascism in France is still an integral part of the French psyche and is not just an intellectual construct.
I personally believe that calling a spade a spade and calling a genuine fascist party, fascist is the right thing to do.
Once again, context is vital. It would never cross my mind to call the Brexiteers "fascist". They are far-right, anti-immigration and espouses more and more radical views, but fascist they are not. The real equivalence here is the Reform UK Party, led by Nigel Farage who in his youth and more recently, expressed some clearly fascist views.
The surprising result in the second round is not a miracle or totally unexpected. It is the direct result of tactical voting that was promoted, actively pursued and communicated by all the French political parties who working together as a "Republican Front" ensured that in most of the constituencies, only the best placed party’s candidate would remain against the National Rally candidate to deny the NR seats. In the first past the post majority voting system, tactical voting can be very efficient on the condition that the voters follow the instructions of their respective parties. It takes a lot for a right-wing leaning voter to vote in favour of a left-wing candidate, and the fact that so many did and also left-wing voters voting for centrist or conservative voters demonstrates the urgency and purpose of the moment.
The National Rally is not down and out and has increased its number of seats in parliament, but it has been clearly and very dramatically prevented from government. The re-branding of the National Rally has not been able to pull the wool over the eyes of most French voters, who still in a very visceral, emotional and existential way abhor fascism and everything that they believe the National Rally stands for.
Marine Le Pen's party has not adapted its policies or changed its fundamental approach in such a way that is acceptable to a majority of the French people. She can tell the public that the National Rally is a traditional centre-right conservative party and not all a far-right party with distinct fascist tendencies until she is blue white and red in her face, but she is not (yet) credible. One only has to see her trying to convince CNN's journalist, Christiane Amanpour of her party's new-found virginity to see how much work she still has to do.
The victory of the left-wing coalition was not a validation and adhesion of their program. Far from it. Despite coming in first place, they are still more than 100 seats away from the majority and the centrist presidential party is close behind in terms of seats. Their good result is due primarily to tactical voting, no more, no less, and they would be wise to remember this. Unfortunately, their more extreme leaders, such as Jean-Luc Mélenchon, very disingenuously are pretending that their "victory" means that France irrevocably has turned overnight into a far-left bastion.
What do these two victories mean for the United States?
It would be a mistake to think that the political winds are irrevocably blowing from right to left. The American voters will not suddenly vote in large numbers for Joe Biden because Keir Starmer won a landslide or because Marine Le Pen failed to convince Christiane Amanpour of her political know-how.
The centre of gravity in today's world is very much in the US. One of the tragic consequences of Brexit is that UK has relatively speaking become much more irrelevant. If Keir Starmer catches a cold, nobody in the US will notice, care of think twice about it. However, if Joe Biden sneezes, the rest of the world will catch a cold of the most unpleasant kind, in particular if it means that Donald Trump wins the November election.
The psycho drama that is happening right now in the United States following Biden's performance or lack thereof at the recent presidential debate is a major inflexion point and is history in the making. The outcome of Biden's epic fight to remain on the Democrats ticket and to run for a second term will have major consequences for the Presidential election, much more than what has happened or will happen in Europe.
Moreover, the American electorate has moved on from Trump's presidency, and the last thing they want to do is even remember the details of what it was like living through Covid. Voters have very short memories and when people think back on Trump they do not think about his recommendation to drink bleach or his "love letters" to Kim Jong-un. They tend to remember Trump with fond nostalgia and miss the supposed era of Trumpian peace and stability.
Biden is under intense scrutiny and his age has become the main focus of the campaign. Never mind what he said during the last State of the Union address, where he said that was important was not his age, but the age of Trump's idea. It is worthwhile reminding people of what he said only a few months ago :
When you get to my age, certain things become clearer than ever before.I know the American story. Again and again I’ve seen the contest between competing forces in the battle for the soul of our nation. Between those who want to pull America back to the past and those who want to move America into the future. My lifetime has taught me to embrace freedom and democracy. A future based on core values that have defined America. Honesty, decency, dignity, equality. To respect everyone. To give everyone a fair shot. To give hate no safe harbor. Now other people my age see it differently.The American story of resentment, revenge and retribution — that’s not me.
The most pernicious of all false equivalencies is on view every day in the US, as described in more detail in the post linked above. Trump and Biden are put on the same level, and often people talk about choosing between the lesser of two evils. But this is not a pleasant reading of Alice in Wonderland, with Tweedledee and Tweedledum making us laugh under the huge grin of the Cheshire cat. It is much more sinister, and the only similarity with Lewis Carroll's masterpiece is the fact that Trump runs around crying out "off with their head" all the time. Either that or he is mad baseball capper.....
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